Tropical Storm TALIM Advisory Fri Sep 15

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 163 NM NORTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
UNRAVELING EYE WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS. A
151234Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULAR LOW REFLECTIVITY
FEATURE WITH CONVECTION ISOLATED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THERE
IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS, WHICH IS BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T5.0 (65 TO 90 KNOTS) AND A 151055Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 63 KNOTS.  UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST HINDERING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS ROBUST FEEDING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET. DUE TO THE QUASI-
STATIONARY MOTION OF TY 20W OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, OCEAN UPWELLING
HAS BROUGHT COOLER WATERS TO THE SURFACE LEADING TO A WEAKENING
TREND. HOWEVER, THE WEAKENING TREND APPEARS TO HAVE STABILIZED AS TY
20W IS NOW ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE..
   B. TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTWARD PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SSTS IN THE REGION
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA OF
UPWELLED WATER. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEUTRAL FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TAPPING INTO A DEEPENING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH COMPETES WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY AROUND 75 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN. JUST
BEFORE TAU 48 THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH TY
20W, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COUPLED WITH STRONG BAROCLINIC
SUPPORT. TY 20W WILL TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW
BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY TIGHT GROUPING THROUGH
THE 72 HOUR FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
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