Tropical Storm THREE Advisory Thu May 13

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) DISPLACED WEST OF AN ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST. EIR
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST
MINDANAO. A 131028Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES WEAK, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE DEFINED CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 (25 TO 35
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES (29C). TD 03W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH A 60NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48, LENDING
MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. TD
03W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER MINDANAO, AND WILL
DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 DUE TO INCREASING VWS (20-25 KNOTS) AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.//
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