Tropical Storm FLOSSIE Advisory Fri Jul 26

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TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013
1500 UTC FRI JUL 26 2013

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME   00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       3       7      14      14      31
TROP DEPRESSION  3       9      19      28      39      39      48
TROPICAL STORM  91      76      65      55      44      44      20
HURRICANE        6      14      12       9       3       3       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        6      13      11       8       3       3       1
HUR CAT 2        X       2       1       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    50KT    45KT    40KT    35KT    30KT    25KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)   9(31)   X(31)   X(31)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
20N 145W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   1(14)

SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   1(12)

KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   2(14)

KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)

LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)

KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)

HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)

LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
FORECASTER BLAKE