Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG Advisory Mon Sep 22

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND
SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. A 221138Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON EIR ANIMATION
AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND
WEAKENING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 16W IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). HOWEVER, THE SAME STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES IS PROVIDING POLEWARD VENTILATION TO THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION. TS 16W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS FUNG-WONG WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 36. CONCURRENTLY,
TS 16W UNDERGOES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND WILL BECOME A WEAK
COLD-CORE LOW BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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