MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 08// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 754 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A DEGREE OF WRAP DESPITE SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE DECAY AND ITS STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN CONSOLIDATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 260914Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS MUIFA WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD, IT WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS BEFORE INCREASED VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES RAPIDLY ERODE, THEN DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN