MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 17// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 66 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, THE EIR ANIMATION AND RADAR LOOP FROM TAIWAN SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED ALONG THE TAIWANESE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AT A MUCH GREATER SPEED. A 211149Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A WELL- DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED THE SSMIS IMAGE, TAIWAN RADAR FIXES AS WELL AS PGTW SATELLITE FIXES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN CONSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 16W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VIGOROUS DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. DUE TO AN ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TS 16W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LAND FALL INTO THE EASTERN CHINA MUCH SOONER THAN EXPECTED IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING MESSAGE. B. TS FUNG-WONG IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, BUT DUE TO PROXIMITY OF LAND, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN 50 KNOT STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CHINA. CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED CHINESE TERRAIN, TS 16W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT-TERM TRACK SPEEDS, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW.// NNNN NNNN