Tropical Storm THREE Advisory Fri May 14

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 008//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
OVER A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 141016Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
(20 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR PALAWAN ISLAND. TD 03W IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 40NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. TD 03W IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER MINDANAO, AND WILL DISSIPATE BY
TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASING VWS (20-25 KNOTS) AND UPPER-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.//
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