Tropical Storm BARIJAT Advisory Thu Sep 13

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (BARIJAT)
WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (BARIJAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 129 NM
EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED AND REMNANT UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE IR IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 131140Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWING A
SMALL, ELONGATED CIRCULATION FEATURE STILL OVER WATER IN THE GULF OF
TONKIN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS, UNDER THE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW,
BASED ON THE INCREASING DISORGANIZATION AND DISSIPATING CONVECTION.
27W IS LOCATED IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED OUTFLOW DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM. TD 27W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN
AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM AROUND TAU 6, FULLY DISSIPATING
BY TAU 24. MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INCLUDING WEAK
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE VWS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN 27W THROUGH
TAU 6, WHEN LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE IT. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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