Tropical Storm FOURTEEN Advisory Sun Aug 02

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
382 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 021130Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH A LINEAR BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION AND NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING. A RECENT SSMIS WIND
PRODUCT INDICATES A SMALL CORE OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS. OVERALL, THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED
CENTER AND LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. TD
14W IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR,
WHICH EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS IS LEADING TO A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, THEREFORE, TD 14W SHOULD WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.//
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