MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 01// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 372 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM OBSCURING A RAPIDLY- CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 101152Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL OUTFLOW, ONE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WESTWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TD 09W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIGDE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTH. THE STR SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MIDLATUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 72. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. C. AFTER TAU 72, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATUDE TROUGH INFLUENCES THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, CAUSING THE DISTURBANCE TO RECURVE AFTER TAU 96. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, NUMERICAL MODELS DEVELOP THIS DISTURBANCE IN VARYING DEGREES WITH THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BEING GFS. SINCE THIS IS A COMPACT SYSTEM, THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS MIGHT NOT RESOLVE THIS SYSTEM CORRECTLY. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN