Tropical Storm MAWAR Advisory Tue Jun 05

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTHWEST
OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) CLEARLY
INDICATES THAT TY 04W HAS BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS
EVIDENCED BY THE INTERACTION WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE, POSITIONED JUST
SOUTH OF JAPAN, AND THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS, THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHEARED
NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE STRONG (30-40 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), HOWEVER, A 051226Z METOP-A IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS RETAINED TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. BASED ON THIS IMAGE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65
KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. TY 04W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE DEEP MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE DEEP
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 24 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TY 04W WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS
(GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS) AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN 23C) BUT SHOULD
TRANSITION INTO A STORM-FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW.  THERE CONTINUES TO
BE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING
AND CONSISTENT PERFORMANCE OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS.//
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