MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 06// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 581 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AS A TUTT TO THE NORTH IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AND HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE ON THE 310822Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT DETERIORATION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 13W IS IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY IS IMPACTED WITH THE SUBSIDING EFFECT OF THE TUTT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP- LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM, EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72, PEAKING AT 120 KNOTS, DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, DECREASING VWS, AND HIGH OHC THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLAND CHAIN. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE TEMPERED BY A DECREASE IN OHC AND INCREASE IN VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH AN AVERAGE SPREAD OF MODEL TRACKS BEYOND TAU 72. THERE IS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN