Tropical Storm GONI Advisory Mon Aug 24

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 43//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
  TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SOLID CONVECTIVE CORE
SURROUNDING A 16-NM DIAMETER EYE. HOWEVER, THE EIR ALSO INDICATES
CONVECTION IS  BEING SUPPRESSED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE FEATURE IN
MSI AND RADAR LOOP FROM THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VWS. TY 16W IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, STEERED BY THE BUILDING NER. AFTERWARDS, THE FORECAST TRACK
WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE EAST AND NORTH
ASSUMES STEERING. CONCURRENTLY, A GRADUAL DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED DUE
TO INCREASING VWS, LAND INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN JAPAN AND THE
COOLER WATERS OF THE SEA OF JAPAN. AFTER TAU 12, TY 16W WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WHICH SHOULD COMPLETE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 24, THEN SPREADS WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF A NORTHWESTWARD TURN. AN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
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