Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Advisory Tue Sep 16

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM EAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW TY 15W HAS MAINTAINED ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE AND
INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES NORTHERN COAST OF
VIETNAM. A 161040Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A ROUND SIGNATURE
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN APPARENT MICROWAVE EYE.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED THE EIR ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TY 15W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN
VIETNAM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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