Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Advisory Fri Aug 17

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING
NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
171236Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
BASED ON THIS IMAGERY, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND TRACK MOTION. TS 14W IS CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL OVER
THE NORTHEAST COAST OF VIETNAM AND HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS, THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS KAI-TAK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TS 14W IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO NORTHERN
VIETNAM AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
NNNN