Tropical Storm SOUDELOR Advisory Tue Aug 04

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING
NR 22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS A 18 NM
DIAMETER EYE WITH SLIGHTLY LOOSEN CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES AND THE CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
STY 13W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
WITH A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SSTS IN THE AREA
REMAINS FAVORABLE. STY SOUDELOR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 13W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS UPPER-LEVEL
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED. AFTERWARDS,
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE LEADING TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
   C. BY TAU 72, A MIGRATORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE STR, ALLOWING STY 13W TO SLIGHTLY SHIFT MORE
NORTHWESTWARD. CONCURRENTLY, DEGRADED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND
LAND INTERACTION WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. STY 13W IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN BEFORE MAKING A FINAL
LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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