Tropical Storm NAKRI Advisory Sun Aug 03

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (NAKRI)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 41 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 12W REMAINS A VERY LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA (NEAR 600 NM DIAMETER); HOWEVER, ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031257Z METOP-B IMAGE DEPICT A
WEAKENING AND BROADENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE KOREAN PENINSULA AS WELL AS MARGINAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
KOREA INDICATE SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF ONLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH SLP
NEAR 993 MB. AS EXPECTED, SURFACE WINDS AT KUNSAN HAVE REMAINED WEAK
DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND
METOP-B IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEAK
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. TD 12W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD NAKRI IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE PERIOD. TD 12W IS FORECAST
TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 06 AND WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS
OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA WITH THE REMNANTS
EMERGING OVER THE EAST SEA AFTER TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
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