Tropical Storm LINFA Advisory Tue Jul 07

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 277 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
DEEPENING IN THE SYSTEM WITH A DRY AIR SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
THE POSITION IS CONFIRMED BY A 071120Z SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON A
PREVIOUS (070637Z) RSCAT IMAGE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH A SLIGHT
POLEWARD TAP. TS LINFA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD UNDER THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS, PARTIALLY FROM TY
09W. THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM NORTH
SLOWLY, ALLOWING FOR SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, TO A PEAK OF 60
KNOTS BY TAU 24. TS LINFA WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST CHINA JUST
PAST TAU 36, CAUSING DECAY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO LAND INTERACTION,
WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
EXTREMELY VARIED IN BOTH SPEED AND LOCATION OF THE TC TRACK DUE TO
THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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