Tropical Storm LINFA Advisory Mon Jul 06

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED  AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED IR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH AN ISOLATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 061132Z SSMIS
IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CENTER JUST UNDER THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH LENDS GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT
POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE
WEAKENED STRUCTURE AND RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY. DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION, DVORAK ESTIMATES APPEAR TOO LOW AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VWS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY POLEWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR. MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LIMIT INTENSIFICATION WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS NEAR TAU 24
TO 36 AS VWS ABATES SLIGHTLY. AFTER TAU 36, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. DUE TO PERSISTENT MARGINAL
CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW DUE
TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND POSSIBLE WEAK DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION WITH TY 09W NEAR TAU 72.//
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