Tropical Storm NOUL Advisory Mon May 11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 35//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THAT IS BEING
ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOT) WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AN 111206Z GMI 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH THE REMAINING LIMITED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE
AND SUPPORTED BY A PGTW AND RJTD SATELLITE FIX WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND. TY NOUL IS RAPIDLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST AND ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
WEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 06W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE
ENHANCED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STEERING STR AND THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. TY NOUL WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE THE COMBINED
EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
BY TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BROADEN AND GAIN FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36, AS A STRONG COLD-CORE
LOW, ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL JAPAN. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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