Tropical Storm MOLAVE Advisory Thu Aug 13

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR
21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 777 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON
131015Z ASCAT PASS AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENED STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 15W HAS DRIFTED DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VWS;
HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
WAYWARD CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS MOLAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AS VWS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND SSTS
BEGIN TO DROP AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECAY.
CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TS 15W WILL BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD
CORE LOW BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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