Tropical Storm ONE Advisory Thu Jul 16

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR
26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE
CONVECTION MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE POSITION IS
BASED ON A 161037Z AMSU-B WHICH SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE EAST OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS APPARENT BASED ON THE ASCAT IMAGE.
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED IN LIGHT OF THE ASCAT PASS AS WELL AS
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 15
KNOTS OF WESTERLY VWS AND SOME RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 01C WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE WEST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH THROUGH TAU 36. MODERATE OUTFLOW
AND LOWER VWS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS HALOLA WILL BEGIN TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND THE STR AXIS. COLDER SSTS AND LOWER OHC WILL HAMPER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WITH SOME SLIGHT DECAY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, WITH SOME SPREADING BEYOND THAT. AS SUCH,
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW.//
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