Tropical Storm MUIFA Advisory Thu Apr 27

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (MUIFA) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 489 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
270931Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SLIGHT CIRCULATION AND
BANDING WITH LIMTED CONVECTION THAT IS DISSIPATING. THE AVAILABLE
IMAGERY PROVIDES FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON THE 271205Z METOP-B ASCAT
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS 25-30KT WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE NORTH EASTERLY
AS THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A STRONG WESTERLY JET. 03W
CURRENTY HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
IS IN AN AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-29C) HOPWEVER, NO
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND THE ABSENCE
OF AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS WARNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 03W (MUIFA) WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE STORM IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES POLEWARD INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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