Tropical Storm ANNABELLE Advisory Tue Sep 01

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 48//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 798 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A BANDING EYE. A 011316Z GMI 36GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A SMALL MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE WITH THE BULK OF THE SPIRAL BANDING LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION, HOWEVER, THERE IS ABOUT A 14-NM
SPREAD IN POSITION FIXES DUE TO PARALLAX ERROR BETWEEN THE GOES AND
MTSAT-2 IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. TY 03C IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 03C IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH TAU
12 BUT SHOULD TURN SLOWLY WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS WEAKLY TO THE
NORTH. DUE TO THE WEAK STR AND PERSISTENT MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF 34 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN WITH DYNAMIC GUIDANCE SHOWING A WIDE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH VARYING TRACK SPEEDS. AFTER TAU 36, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD BY TAU 60, WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE STR TO RE-BUILD TO THE NORTH. TY 03C SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE
WESTWARD. TY 03C IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 03C IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
TRACK UNDER THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TY 03C IS
FORECAST TO PEAK AT 125 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AND SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS OVER A POOL OF WARMER SST (30 TO 32 CELSIUS).
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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