Tropical Storm MALAKAS Advisory Sun Sep 18

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REGAINED ITS EYE AS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS
RE-CONSOLIDATED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE 30-NM EYE IN
THE EIR LOOP WHICH LINES UP WITH A SYMMETRIC MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN
THE 181121Z 36GHZ GPM PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS
BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND REFLECTS
THE RE-INTENSIFICATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS); HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY THE IN-PHASE STORM MOTION,
EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 18W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF
THE STR AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED DEEPER INTO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL IN KYUSHU AFTER TAU 24. TY MALAKAS WILL THEN DRAG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF JAPAN. THE LAND INTERACTION, IN ADDITION TO STRONG
VWS (GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS), WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DISSIPATION OVER
HONSHU BY TAU 72. THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH JENI AS THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER. THERE ARE ALSO SOME DIFFERENCES
IN LATERAL SPEED, BUT OVERALL, THE TIGHT GROUPING LENDS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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