Tropical Storm SOUDELOR Advisory Wed Aug 05

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 474 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THINNING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND A 25 NM DIAMETER EYE THAT SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 13W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW
VWS AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. TY
SOUDELOR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 13W WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. TY SOUDELOR WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE. AFTERWARD, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY DUE TO IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH A SECONDARY PEAK OF 120 KNOTS AT TAU 48. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER CENTRAL TAIWAN AND
EMERGES INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY SOUDELOR WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. CONCURRENTLY, A MIGRATORY MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND DRIVE THE
CYCLONE POLEWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
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