Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG Advisory Sun Sep 21

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 66 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ADDITIONALLY, THE EIR ANIMATION AND RADAR LOOP FROM TAIWAN SHOW THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED ALONG THE TAIWANESE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS AT A MUCH GREATER SPEED. A 211149Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED THE SSMIS
IMAGE, TAIWAN RADAR FIXES AS WELL AS PGTW SATELLITE FIXES WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN
CONSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 16W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
VIGOROUS DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. TS 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. DUE TO AN ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
TS 16W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LAND FALL INTO THE EASTERN CHINA MUCH
SOONER THAN EXPECTED IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING MESSAGE.
   B. TS FUNG-WONG IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST, BUT DUE TO PROXIMITY OF LAND, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN 50 KNOT STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CHINA. CONTINUED
INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED CHINESE TERRAIN, TS 16W WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT-TERM TRACK SPEEDS, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
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