Tropical Storm MATMO Advisory Sat Jul 19

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 587 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191123Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING
ACROSS JAPAN. THIS TROUGH WILL MODIFY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT
BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP TY 10W ON A STEADY TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 10W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN AFTER TAU 84. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND MAKE FINAL LANDFALL INTO THE
CHINESE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BEFORE TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE JAPANESE TRACKERS THAT ARE RIGHT
OUTLIERS.//
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