Tropical Storm NANMADOL Advisory Mon Jul 03

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 05W BRIEFLY DEVELOPED A SMALL EYE
EVIDENT IN ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AT 03/0830Z WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 FROM KNES AND, UNOFFICIALLY, PGTW. SINCE THIS
TIME, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
RAGGED CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 03/1226Z GPM 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 (55 KNOTS) TO T4.0 (65 KNOTS).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. TS 05W IS TRACKING QUICKLY
POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AS IT
ROUNDS THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. TS NANMADOL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AFTER TAU 06 AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (26 TO 25C) AND APPROACHES
THE WESTERN COAST OF KYUSHU. AFTER TAU 12, TS 05W SHOULD WEAKEN
FURTHER AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF
KYUSHU. AFTER TAU 18, RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KYUSHU, SHIKOKU AND HONSHU WHILE
UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION WILL SERVE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM BEFORE IT COMPLETES ETT BY TAU 36. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN
UNUSUALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR A RE-CURVE SCENARIO LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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