Tropical Storm SOUDELOR Advisory Sat Aug 01

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011111Z GMI 89 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS
A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.0 (45 KNOTS), WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT STORM
STRUCTURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT CELL NEAR 24N 160E. OVERALL,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SST 30 TO 31C AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
TS SOUDELOR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
WELL-ESTABLISHED STR. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 70 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24
AND A 200 NM SPREAD AT TAU 72. ADDITIONALLY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT SUPPORTING A FORECAST TRACK OVER OR TO
THE NORTH OF SAIPAN, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TS
13W IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 12 TO
24.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE LEADING TO CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. INTENSIFICATION WILL BE TEMPERED BY A DECREASE IN SSTS AND
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS WELL AS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VWS. ALTHOUGH
MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS FAN OUT,  NONE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS ANY
INDICATION OF A RECURVATURE SCENARIO. THE JTWC TRACK IS POSITIONED
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS IN FAVOR OF THE GFS, HWRF, AND EUROPEAN MODELS BASED
ON THEIR INITIALIZATION OF THE STR. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 72 (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN), THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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