Tropical Storm ONE Advisory Fri Jul 17

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR
30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 518 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF UJELANG, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SHOWS SOME FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION HIDING THE LLCC AND MAINLY CONCENTRATED ON THE
EASTERN SIDE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR AND MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 35
KNOTS DUE TO AN AVERAGE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IN AN
AREA OF LOW VWS AND MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 01C WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. VWS IS
EXPECTED TO EASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS, AND OCEAN
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE, ALLOWING TS 012C TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, EXPECT A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AND THE RIDGE REFORMS.
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY DUE TO GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
ONCE TS 01C STARTS TO TAKE A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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