Tropical Storm ONE Advisory Wed Jul 15

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA) WARNING
NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 149 NM SOUTHEAST
OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE THAT IS
ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOT)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 151012Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE FURTHER ILLUSTRATES THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
SHALLOW SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 75 KNOTS BASED ON THE CONTINUED POOR STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM AND AN ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES. TY HALOLA IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES; HOWEVER, THE MODERATE TO
HIGH VWS IS PREVENTING INTENSIFICATION. TY HALOLA IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 01C WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS LEADING TO MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND TAU 48,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE CYCLONE GAINS A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY HALOLA WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT
STARTS TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR.
EXPECT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE TAPS FURTHER INTO
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
NNNN