Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM Advisory Sun Jul 12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING
NR 49//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.  ANIMATED
ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM THAT
APPEARS TO HAVE COMPLETELY UNRAVELED WITH AN EXPOSED LLCC AND NO
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  A 121207Z AMSU-B IMAGE
REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ONLY. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45
KNOTS, HOWEVER, AS RECENT OBSERVATIONS OFF THE KOREAN COAST STILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT WINDS. THE 40 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY VWS IS SLIGHTLY
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 09W IS TRACKING ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE STR AXIS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS CHAN-HOM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE AROUND
THE STR. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED DECAY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST DUE
TO LOW OHC, HIGH VWS AND LANDFALL. EXPECT COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE COURSE OF THE FORECAST AS IT TRACKS OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH KOREA, WITH ITS
TERMINUS IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE MACH-OL RANGE. NUMERICAL DYNAMIC
MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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