Tropical Storm MATMO Advisory Tue Jul 22

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158 NM SOUTH OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS INCREASINGLY TIGHTER WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND A BROAD
EYE FEATURE. RADAR ANIMATION FROM TAIWAN ALSO REVEALS A MORE
CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM AS THE CONVECTIVE BANDS DEEPEN UPON MAKING
LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN. ADDITIONALLY, THE EYE
FEATURE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DESPITE BEING BROAD. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE EIR LOOP AND
RADAR POSITION FIXES FROM TAIWAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON THE DEFINED
ORGANIZATION WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN CONSISTENT AT
77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05
TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER WHICH, A MID-
 LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR
AND CAUSE TY MATMO TO TURN POLEWARD. AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL
ACROSS TAIWAN AND INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT, LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL CAUSE TY 10W TO WEAKEN QUICKLY. DUE TO THE
QUICK TRACK OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE
SUFFICIENT TIME TO RE-STRENGTHEN. INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
AFTER TAU 24 WITH LANDFALL INTO CHINA, WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TY 10W,
WITH FULL DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 48. THE REMNANTS OF TY 10W
WILL INTERACT WITH THE SEMI-STATIONARY MID-LATITUDE BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CHINA THROUGH SOUTHERN KOREA AS MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THE ABSORPTION OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE BOUNDARY BEYOND
TAU 72. BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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