Tropical Storm DOLPHIN Advisory Fri May 15

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 36//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 29 NM NORTHWEST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED BY AN ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE. THE EIR LOOP FURTHER ILLUSTRATES A STRUGGLING CONVECTIVE
CORE THAT CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AS IT FIGHTS DRY AIR TO THE WEST. A
151016Z GMI 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
SURROUNDED BY A SMALL CONVECTIVE CORE WITH THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON A 151116Z SCATTEROMETER PASS AND SUPPORTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE AND EIR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SUPPORTED BY A
RECENT SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 92 KNOTS AND A MAXIMUM WIND GUST
OBSERVATION FROM PGUA OF 92 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TYPHOON DOLPHIN IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-15 KNOT) SOUTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
TYPHOON 07W IS TRACKING UNDER AN EXTENSION OF THE STEERING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TYPHOON DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MODIFIED STR. OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
FAVORABLE, LEADING TO A SLOW INTENSIFICATION RATE. BY TAU 36, THE
STEERING STR IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING TY
07W TO BEGIN THE POLEWARD TURN. AS TY DOLPHIN ROUNDS THE STR AXIS,
IT WILL GAIN AN INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FROM THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, CONTINUING THE INTENSIFICATION RATE AND
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
WILL COMPLETE THE POLEWARD TURN AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. CONCURRENTLY, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS (25-30
KNOTS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 26 CELSIUS NEAR
TAU 96 WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM, STARTING ITS WEAKENING
TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
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