Tropical Storm NANGKA Advisory Fri Jul 17

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR
57//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAMP FUJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SHOWS THAT
THE LLCC REMAINS POORLY DEFINED, HOWEVER SOME WRAPPING CAN BE SEEN
AS IT HAS TRACKED INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS, SUCH AS LOWER
SSTS, WHICH are REFLECTED BY THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BY ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN MODERATE TO HIGH VWS (20 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR TO
THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS NANGKA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SEA
OF JAPAN AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STR. EXPECT FURTHER
DECAY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO LOW OHC AND INCREASED VWS. LAND
INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN HONSHU BY TAU 24 WILL LEAD TO THE SYSTEMS
COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 36 SOUTH OF HOKKAIDO.  AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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