Tropical Storm KAJIKI Advisory Sat Feb 01

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (KAJIKI)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (KAJIKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 149
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
(IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE TRACK OVER THE PHILIPPINES, THE LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN IN IR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS ADJACENT TO A
LARGE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEAST SURGE. A
011202Z SSMIS IMAGE, HOWEVER, SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED
ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TD 02W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS
IT BATTLES PERSISTENT VWS AND THE DISRUPTIVE EFFECTS OF THE
NORTHWEST SURGE. THE SYSTEM MAY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO TAU 36 DUE TO THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. DYNAMIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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