Tropical Storm GONI Advisory Sat Aug 22

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 35//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 404 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN,  HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY BANDS FEEDING INTO A 22-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY 16W IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, VWS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY AND THE SYSTEM WILL GAIN A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL DUE TO
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW THE TYPHOON TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES PAST THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE HAMPERED BY DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
ABOVE THE 25TH LATITUDE. AFTER TAU 48, TY 16W WILL WEAKEN AFTER IT
MAKES LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU, JAPAN, AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY GONI WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST ASSUMES STEERING. TY GONI WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER THE COLD SEA OF JAPAN AN DEEPER INTO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY TAU 120, TY 16W WILL BECOME A COLD CORE LOW AND
MAKES FINAL LANDFALL INTO RUSSIA NEAR VLADIVOSTOK. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 THEN SPREADS SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTERWARDS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE ONLY TO THE NEAR- TO MID-TERM
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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