Tropical Storm NAKRI Advisory Sat Aug 02

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI) WARNING NR
02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED DISPLACED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, THE SURFACE WIND FIELD HAS CONTRACTED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND THE CURRENT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS 90 TO 110
NM BASED ON A 020159Z ASCAT IMAGE. A 021204Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATES
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. BASED ON THE EIR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY,
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS
RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SYSTEM. A 020437Z AMSU CROSS-
SECTION SUPPORTS A WARM-CORE SYSTEM AND SHOWS A DEFINED WARM ANOMALY
OF +2C. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) VALUES ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE AT 25 TO 26C. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 12W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TS NAKRI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SHARPLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS
IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE STR AND INTO MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. TS
12W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST,
BEGINS INTERACTING WITH LAND AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36 AND WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF THE KOREAN
PENINSULA WITH THE REMNANTS EMERGING OVER THE EAST SEA AFTER TAU 48.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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