Tropical Storm GONI Advisory Sun Aug 23

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 39//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
  TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS CONVECTION HAS
FURTHER DEEPENED AROUND AN 27-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION THAT
LINES UP WITH A 231009Z F18 MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
100 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE DEEPENED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER
LEVEL ANIMATION INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
(10-15 KNOT) VWS AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY 16W IS TRACKING
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST. SSTS ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE AT 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 16W WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, STEERED BY THE BUILDING NER.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE, PROMOTING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, THE FORECAST TRACK WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS THE STR
BUILDING TO THE EAST ASSUMES STEERING. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
INCREASING VWS. LAND INTERACTION WITH KYUSHU, FOLLOWED BY COOLER
WATERS OF THE SEA OF JAPAN WILL CAUSE GRADUAL THEN RAPID WEAKENING.
BY TAU 36, TY 16W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). AFTER
TAU 48, TY GONI WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR FURTHER
BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. GONI WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT
IS MAKES LANDFALL INTO THE RUGGED NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH KOREA.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 THEN SPREADS WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF A NORTHWESTWARD TURN. AN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
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