Tropical Storm MOLAVE Advisory Fri Aug 07

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (MOLAVE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300
NM EAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
QUADRANTS OF THE LLCC DUE TO MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) SOUTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TUTT CELL
POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. A 071124Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE LLCC WITH
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION DUE TO THE BROAD
LLCC AND LACK OF HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TD 15W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 15W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 36. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AS THE TUTT CELL REMAINS,
ALLOWING ONLY MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 36, VWS
WILL DECREASE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE, SUPPORTING
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE
SYSTEM WILL REACH THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD THROUGH
TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 15W WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96. TD 15W WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY DUE TO INCREASED VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. TD 15W SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST DUE TO POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM AND HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT.//
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