Tropical Storm FOURTEEN Advisory Mon Aug 03

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
290 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031204Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031205Z ASCAT IMAGE
INDICATES A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
25 KNOTS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGERY. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE DRY
AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM AND MODERATE VWS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, THE VWS IS PREVENTING CONVECTION
FROM BUILDING OVER THE LLCC. TD 14W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO DETERIORATE AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ENGULFS THE
SYSTEM, INCREASING THE VWS AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL CAUSE TD 14W TO
WEAKEN AND FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.//
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