Tropical Storm NEOGURI Advisory Mon Jul 07

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STY 08W HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED
DESPITE MAINTAINING A ROUND 40-NM EYE. A 070917Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE CLEARLY REVEALS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) OCCURRING
WITH AN ERODING INNER EYEWALL AND CONCENTRIC OUTER EYEWALL. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT RADIAL OUTFLOW, WHICH IS
HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE AND ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
CURRENT STRUCTURE AND ASSESSMENT FROM DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. STY 08W CONTINUES TO TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 08W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AS THE STR BEGINS TO SEE
INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 24, STY
NEOGURI WILL CREST THE RIDGE AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH FURTHER WEAKENS THE STEERING STR. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN INITIALLY DUE TO THE ERC AND IS EXPECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 36, COOLING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), INCREASING VWS AHEAD OF THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND LANDFALL INTO KYUSHU, JAPAN, WILL SLOWLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM.
   C. BY TAU 72, STY NEOGURI WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AND CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE ON NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE COLD
BAROCLINIC ZONE. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL LEAD TO ITS
RAPID DETERIORATION. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST, STY NEOGURI WILL
COMPLETE ITS TRANSFORMATION INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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