Tropical Storm NEOGURI Advisory Sun Jul 06

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 476 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED AS IT BECAME HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL WITH TIGHTLY
CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 25-
NM EYE. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 061042Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS A SMALL INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES SHOWING ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW SUPPORTING THE
CURRENT INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONGRUENT
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS
FAVORABLE AS TY 08W TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SERIES OF TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE LOWS
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE WILL CREST THE RIDGE AND
BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48. DUE TO VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS.
BEYOND TAU 48, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND INCREASING
VWS AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY NEOGURI WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KYUSHU, JAPAN, AS THE STEERING STR CONTINUES
TO RECEDE. THE INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST
VALUES, AND LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DETERIORATION.
HOWEVER, TY 08W WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL
INTO SOUTHERN JAPAN. BY TAU 96, TY NEOGURI WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND GAIN FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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