Tropical Storm SAOLA Advisory Thu Aug 02

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA)
WARNING NR 23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REGAINED SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING AS IT MOVED
OFFSHORE FROM NORTHERN TAIWAN INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT. A RADAR
REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM THE TAIWAN CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU INDICATES
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS REMAINED INTACT AND LENDS GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE WEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER HONSHU, JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT BEFORE IT MAKES
LANDFALL NEAR FUZHOU, CHINA BEFORE TAU 12. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST TRACK.
TS SAOLA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER LAND BY TAU 36.    //
NNNN
NNNN