Tropical Storm ONE Advisory Mon Jul 13

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA) WARNING
NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 694 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE WITH BANDING WRAPPING
MORE TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. THERE REMAINS HINTS OF THE NEAR RADIAL
OUTFLOW PROVIDING GOOD EXHAUST FOR THE SYSTEM. A 131111z SSMI IMAGE
CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE AND BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED DUE TO
IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LIGHT
TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
TS HALOLA IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 01C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND WILL INTENSIFY AT AN AVERAGE RATE
AS GOOD OUTFLOW PERSISTS AND AS IT TRACKS THOUGH WATER WITH
CONDUCIVE OHC. THE CURRENT VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES MORE IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS HALOLA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD. EXPECT CONTINUAL INTENSIFICATION DUE TO
PERSISTENT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING
 TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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