Tropical Storm HALONG Advisory Sat Aug 09

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR
49//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TS 11W IS STARTING TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF SHIKOKU, JAPAN. MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT SOME PRESSURE ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY FROM THE WESTERLIES IS BEGINNING TO BE APPARENT
IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACTS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM SHIKOKU INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULA-
TION CENTER REMAINS WELL-DEFINED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED BASED ON WEAKENING DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE LOSS OF
ORGANIZATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. TS 11W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TS HALONG 11W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE STR AND IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU
36. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO BE MAKING LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LAND INDUCED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ALONG WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
WILL LEAD TO THE WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 12 TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN, LEADING TO MORE RAPID WEAKENING AS THE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE, AMPLIFYING THE ALREADY
POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
NNNN