Tropical Storm SOUDELOR Advisory Fri Jul 31

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 581 NM
EAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AS A TUTT TO THE NORTH IS CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE AND HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE
ON THE 310822Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT DETERIORATION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 13W IS IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY IS IMPACTED
WITH THE SUBSIDING EFFECT OF THE TUTT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM, EXPECT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72, PEAKING AT 120 KNOTS,
DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, DECREASING VWS, AND HIGH OHC THROUGH
THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLAND CHAIN.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE TEMPERED BY A
DECREASE IN OHC AND INCREASE IN VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH AN AVERAGE SPREAD OF MODEL TRACKS
BEYOND TAU 72. THERE IS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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