Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM Advisory Wed Jul 01

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 652 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO AN OBSCURED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
LOOP, A 011046Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS SATELLITE FIXES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BASED ON
MATCHING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TS
09W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 09W WILL MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 48
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR. MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, LEADING TO GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
MORE COMPLICATED AS TS CHAN-HOM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A TROPICAL
AREA OF DISTURBANCE (94W) MENTIONED IN THE ABPW10 PGTW 010600.
CONCURRENTLY, THE STR WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT TO THE EAST, ALLOWING TS
09W TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD.
   C. TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
CURRENT TRACK SPEED AND INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED TAUS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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