Tropical Storm MUIFA Advisory Wed Apr 26

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (MUIFA)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
 TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 754 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A DEGREE OF WRAP DESPITE
SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE DECAY AND ITS STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
CONSOLIDATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 260914Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS MUIFA WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD, IT WILL  ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 45
KNOTS BEFORE INCREASED VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES
RAPIDLY ERODE, THEN DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING AN OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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